Look, if there’s a choice between having $84 million to run a fall campaign or raising your own funds from the over 1.5 million donors you already have, what would you do? All these people complaining that he’s either going back on a committment or destroying the public finance system (such as it is) are simply jealous about the fact that probably for the first time in recent memory, the Democrat will have more money than the Republican candidate.
The inluence of money in our political system is corrupting. But the thing is Obama does not take money from any federal lobbyists or PACs. Those are the main culprits in the money-for-influence game. Obama has over 1.5 million small donors who have given an average of less than $200 per person. So his campaign itself IS campaign finance reform and IS public financing. He is accountable to the millions of small donors who have given him money, not lobbyists and corporations and all that.
I would have been just ill if he had opted to go with the public financing. I think he will be able to raise well over $150-200 million for the general election campaign. That will help him be competitive in more states (like Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, and Georgia where he recently bought ads) AND put McCain on the defensive in states Republicans are normally guaranteed. If you look at the electoral map, Obama is starting in a much better position than McCain. But, its only June so I don’t count anything until November. And even then everything doesn’t always get counted (see 2000 election stolen by Bush).
In the last two days, John McCain and President Bush have come out in favor of opening up coastal areas now under a moratorium for oil and gas drilling. This includes most of the Florida coast. To put this in perspective, even his brother, Jeb Bush, governor of Florida for 8 years until 2006, opposed coastal drilling. This is being sold as some sort of fix for high gas prices, as if it would help anytime soon and come at no risk to the environment. I think it was not only a bad policy idea, but a terirble political decision. I don’t think most voters in FL would favor this since the whole economy there is basically based on tourism and one oil spill and boom! Wiped out.
However, as noted in the study below, the effect of drilling
The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.
And the impact of the projected 7% (!) increase in lower-48 oil production that might result in 2030 thanks to opening the OCS is … wait for it …
… any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.
My apologies for the lack of posts the last few days…been away camping and celebrating my first year anniversary of marriage to my wonderful wife.
I wanted to do a little update on the VEEP questions since I’ve heard a few more rumors and some comments have been made about it:
Who Obama may select (in order of possibility, IMHO):
Jack Reed–Senator from Rhode Island (military background)
Mark Warner-former Virginia gov and current Senate candidate**my favorite** Quote from Warner last weekend: “Let me be clear about this: I have been working very hard these last few months to ask the people of Virginia to give me the honor of being their United States senator,” Warner said. “I will not seek, and I will not accept, any other opportunity.” Its ok because he’ll win that Senate seat from the GOP.
Tim Kaine-current VA gov
Sam Nunn-former Senator from Georigia
Senator Joe Biden new!
Bill Richardson-New Mexico governor
Janet Napolitano-current Arizona Gov
Someone not being talked about-former military person or Gov
Also, John Edwards backed off his statement of NOT being VP, so he remains an outside possibility.
As a Constitutional Law teacher, this decision was a long time in coming.
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Thursday delivered its third consecutive rebuff to the Bush administration’s handling of the detainees at Guantánamo Bay, ruling 5 to 4 that the prisoners there have a constitutional right to go to federal court to challenge their continued detention.
The court declared unconstitutional a provision of the Military Commissions Act of 2006 that, at the administration’s behest, stripped the federal courts of jurisdiction to hear habeas corpus petitions from the detainees seeking to challenge their designation as enemy combatants.
Writing for the majority, Justice Anthony M. Kennedy said the truncated review procedure provided by a previous law, the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005, “falls short of being a constitutionally adequate substitute” because it failed to offer “the fundamental procedural protections of habeas corpus.”
Justice Kennedy declared: “The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.”
To deny prisoners the right to challenge their detention and the reason for their detention is simply unconstitutional. This is what the Bush administration has been doing for the last seven years. Time and again the Court has smacked down the sham of a trial system Bush has tried to set up because its simply a joke and a complete abomination. Its basically a kangaroo court, not real justice. I say if the government has a reason, has evidence that people in Guantanamo Prison committed a crime let them present it to a REAL court and let the court decide. I have no idea whether or not the prisoners down there did anything, but maybe they did. Some have been let out after years because the government imprisoned the wrong person. I mean, next they will be imprisoning Americans and not allowing YOU to have a habeas corpus hearing. Think about that. See below for more on Habeas Corpus rights in the Constitution.
Maybe you watched Obama on June 3 give his speech at the end of all the primaries announcing he had secured the Democratic nomination in front of 18,000 people in St. Paul (with another 15,000 outside). Surely you saw the nice moment before his speech between him and his wife, and the moment she gave him the congratulatory fist-bump. Here is the photo:
Now I don’t know, some of you out there may watch Fox (I hesitate to call it a “news” channel), but their coverage is and has been quite biased for many years. Here is perhaps the best signal yet.
During the June 6 edition of Fox News’ America’s Pulse, host E.D. Hill teased an upcoming discussion by saying, “A fist bump? A pound? A terrorist fist jab? The gesture everyone seems to interpret differently.”
Seriously. Are you kidding me? She did not just say that. Its quite hard to believe that a tv anchor is so completely out of touch that she doesn’t know what a fist-bump is. I mean the only rational explanation is she is trying to associate hime with terroism. Barack HUSSEIN Obama–omg! Scary name! Terrorist! Seriously. FOX is ridiculous. She later apologized, saying:
”And I certainly didn’t mean to associate the word “terrorist” in any way to Senator Obama and his wife.”
WHAT? Excuse me, that’s EXCATLY what you did! Stunningly, she lost her show and FOX actually moved her elsewhere. I thought people at that network usually got raises for saying things like that. She got replaced by Laura Ingrahm, a nutty radio host and a very bitter, unpleasant women.
With apologies to all the pundits out there who seem to think McCain might actually win Michigan, I just do not see it happening. It may be close, within 5 points maybe, but that’s how it always is. And for the last 4 elections, Michigan has voted for the Democratic candidate. And I say, if a state voted for Kerry, its most likely going to vote for Obama. If McCain wins MI I would be absolutely shocked. 12 years of John Engler’s devastation was enough Republican leadership for about 50 more years. Still trying to dig out from what he did. Granholm ain’t the greatest but she beat DeVos anyways. Plus, the voting in Detroit will be like 90% turnout and most of the Arab community in Detroit will support Obama too.
New polling has Obama up 45% -McCain 42%. 4 point change from a month ago. Still withing the margin of error of 4%. But encouraging. The more he’s here the more familiar and comfortable Michiganders will become of him I think.
Some interesting facts about Vice-Presidents (from here on in known as the Veep):
Only four siting Veeps ever became President:
John Adams in 1896
Thomas Jefferson in 1800
Martin VanBuren in 1896
George HW Bush in 1988
Nine Veeps have succeeded Presidents who died or resigned, the last one being Gerald Ford in 1974
Two shot a man while in office
Aaron Burr killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel in 1804
Dick Cheney shot his friend while hunting (not nearly as valiant)
Only 7 Veeps served two full terms including Bush I, Gore and Nixon
Andrew Johnson took his 1865 oath of office drunk
Fascinating, I know. But this is now going to be the new game of speculation in the press. Who will McCain and Obama choose to run with them? I’m in the game of speculation now, so I am listing who I personally think his top chocies are or should be. This is based on things floating around in my head.
Who Obama may select (in no particular order):
Bill Richardson-New Mexico governor
Mark Warner-former Virginia gov and current Senate candidate**my favorite**
Sam Nunn-former Senator from Georigia
Tim Kaine-current VA gov
Janet Napolitano-current Arizona Gov
Someone not being talked about-former military person or Gov
Jack Reed–Senator from Rhode Island (military background)
People I don’t see being selected:
John Edwards-already said he wouldn’t do it again
Jim Webb-too many problems in the past
Hillary Clinton-need I say anything?
Another Senator-just seems like you want someone outside Washington
Kathleen Sebelius-much talked about but just doens’t seem like a good choice to me
For what its worth, that’s my opinion. I’ll tackle the McCain choices tomorrow. I’ll update my list if I get any feelings that something is changing. Feel free to chime in on the person or type of person you think Obama or McCain should choose!
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