May 12 2008
The Next Move [with interactive poll!]
The lady with the pants-suit will be singing soon. How soon, is the question. For those who may think that Hillary will never drop out and take this fight all the way to the convention, I don’t buy into that at all. Now I am sure that there are some aides of hers that would encourage this course of action, but I believe there are too many others that are interested in the unity and strength of the institution known as the Democratic Party. For her to go to the convention would be nearly a death blow either Democrat’s chances for the fall. So, it ain’t gonna happen.
1. When will Hillary drop out?
Anyone want to do a little wagering on this one? Say, pick a day? I’ve heard lots of rumors on this one, but it seems likely to me, that it will either be on May 21 or after June 3 (I’ll give her until June 10). I am currently leaning towards June 5. I’d be happy to see it done earlier.
2. Why should she drop out?
Seriously, I think if she wants any sort of future in the Democratic Party, she’s going to have to. Would you want to tick off every African-American in the country by being the one to basically steal the nomination (or be perceived trying to) from the first AA Presidential nominee? Didn’t think so. She and Bill don’t want to ruin his legacy, such as it is, either; by being responsible for the end of the Democratic Party as we know it and blowing a “gimme” election. (knock on wood)
I don’t think she wants to be or will be selected to be VP either. If you were Obama, would you want Bill running around and your VP bent on her own selfish interests? No. So, she can have a great job in the Senate, maybe she wants to be Majority Leader someday. That seems to be her best bet and if she hangs around this contest, no Dem Senator would ever vote for her as Leader.
I’m sorry to all the women who wanted a woman to be the nominee for the first time, but she lost. Its called Democracy yo. So, they can be upset but realize that its played out and Obama won. This is a little different scenario than if she tried to win using the Supers because that would be oh so undemocratic.
The math is completely against her. The pundits should have realized this after March 4, but for some reason chose to wait until now when the math is about the same. She cannot catch him in pledged delegates. On May 20 he will have a majority of pledged delegates, thus securing the nomination by the votes of the people. Overturning this with Superdelegates would be her only chance to win. How’s that been going, Hillary? Obama is now AHEAD of her by 4 Superdelegate, so I don’t think they are really buying her completely inane, absurd arguments.
3. Will her supporters vote for Obama?
Look, honestly, if I was polled a month ago and asked if I would still vote for her if she won the nomination, I may have told the pollster no. But really people, the general election IS ABOUT POLICY. Yes, the personalities also play a big role, but come on, find me a voter who just LOVED John Kerry. When it comes down to it, Hillary’s supporters (not the Limbaugh ones of course) are going to look at McCain and what he represents (oldness and Bush’s third term–basically the same policies on Iraq and the economy as we’ve had) or the bold proposals on these issues offered by Obama. I mean, you can’t vote for McCain if you want to end the war or fix the health care system. Sorry (in that Simon Cow voice). So yes, her voters will come back to Obama, even those Appalachian ones (I’ll refrain from name-calling at this point).
Bring on the General Election!
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