May 06 2008
Primary Night Returns and Open Commentary
Most Indiana polls have closed now (6:00pm EST) and the rest, along with NC will close at 7:00. Hold on to your seats! Also, early Indiana returns will probably favor Clinton as the Gary area (Obama stronghold) doesn’t close until 7. I will update this thread periodically throughout the night.
**6:15** Dean is on MSNBC, asked about FL, MI of course. Thinks agreement will come on seating the delegates that both campaigns have to agree to. Early IN returns 64-36 for Billary. See above comment. Dean hawks DNC site and 100 years ad against McCain.
Exit polling shows half of voters thought the Wright situation was important, half didn’t. Close to the same for white/black voters. Oh and Sen Evan Bayh tried to vote in the wrong precint today and was turned away. He’s a Hillary supporter.
**7:00** POLLS CLOSED! Obama is winning African-Americans in NC by 91-6! Why aren’t people asking about Hillary’s failure to win black votes? CNN says the race is “TOO EARLY TO CALL” but it looks like its going to be close to me. With 4% in she leads by only 12,000. None of the Obama counties are in yet. He is leading in Fort Wayne, which is good.
**7:30** OBAMA WINS NORTH CAROLINA!! (CNN projects) Back in the victory column! A much needed win, makes me happier. Lets see how big he wins. More delegates, more delegates, more delegates…..do the math Hillary!
**7:50** Well, its nice to hear the punditocracy finally talking about an Obama victory and what it means for Clinton’s campaign instead of constantly questioning the Obama campaign. I’ve been looking at the Indiana numbers, looking at the population left in the counties that “should” be for Obama and its going to be real close, I don’t think he can make it for the victory at this point, but I think it’ll be pretty close, maybe she wins by 5% or less. I’d be happy to be proven wrong about this prognostication.
John King keeps pointing out that its nearly impossible for Billary to get enough delegates to take the lead in the reat of the primaries. DUH! Someone should tell her that. I hope Obama gets like 30 Superdelegates to come out tomorrow and support him, that would be a real statement and give him more Supers than she has (he’s only about 15 down right now).
**8:05** Quote of the night: “Hillary needs a meteor to hit.”
**8:35** Took an ice cream break. CNN is now reviewing different “Popular Vote Scenarios” 1. Only primaries (w/outFL, MI) Obama ahead; 2. All contests (w/out FL, MI) Obama wins; 3. All Contests inlcluding FL only (not MI) Obama wins. Need anymore be said? He is winning in each scenario. And, btw, Campbell Brown is dumb.
**10:10** Wow! Great speech by Obama. He changed it up to talk about his background, appeal to those working class voters he needs, hit the Republicans head on about these silly distractions, smacked McCain and his policies and got the campaign back to his theme of hope and bringing America together. MSNBC is now talking about what a bad night this is turning out to be for Clinton. Even if she wins Indiana its not going to be by anything more than 3-4 points, not really any momentum for her at all. Sounds like she may be out of money again too.
**11:30** Indiana….what the heck’s going on there?! There’s gonna be a big dump of results by Lake County, an Obama stronghold, presumably. I think he gets to within 1 or 2 points, but he’ll be just short of victory. HOWEVER, it’ll be good enough to convince a lot of people that he is THE nominee now. She failed to win big and got crushed in NC. Her speech was bland and tired. She was much nicer than ususal to Obama too. I think the end may be near and she may realize it.
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