Donuts And Politics

If you had tuned into the debate last night on ABC between Hillary and Obama, and thought instead you had tuned into a mud-wrestling contest, I don’t blame you. I kept changing the channel, looking for a debate on important issues I care about in the Presidential campaign. Unfortunately, all I found was 45 minutes of annoying, possibly right-wing talking points being forced down both candidates throats. Who was that moderator up there, Rush Limbaugh? Sean Hannity? Oh wait, it was George Stephanopolous, quite the impartial mediator having previously worked for Bill Clinton. Apparently he didn’t get the memo that Pennsylvanians and the other 10 million people watching the debate actually wanted to hear the candidates speak about real issues of importance.

Let’s review the topics of the first 45 minutes of debate (my comments in bars):

1. Process (VP running mate) [Seriously, shouldn't someone WIN the nomination before even considering this questions? Why ask it now folks.]

2. Bitter [Yes, I expected one question about this, fine]

3. Bitter/Process (can Obama win?) [Still talking about bitter? I'm beginning to get bitter about this debate already. Clinton uses GOP talking points. Is she morphing into Lieberman before our very eyes?]

4. Process (can Obama win?) [Same topic, AGAIN. Hillary finally admits she thinks he can win. Today her campaign tries to backtrack on that. Huh...]

5. Process (can Clinton win?) [Obama supports the nominee wholeheartedly. Why are we STILL talking about this non-issue?]

6. Wright [Pretty sure this was hacked to death 3 weeks ago. Where was ABC, stuck in a black hole?]

7. Wright [Seriously, you JUST ASKED about this. Hillary keeps twisting the knife in, what a loyal Democrat. She must get the GOP daily talking points.]

8. Wright/patriotism [Ok, I am flat out grumpy now and getting angry. Last time ABC did a debate, it was classy. This time, its garbage. How much time are we wasting on this topic?]

9. Wright [AGAIN?? Hillary likes talking about it. But really, does anyone not belonging to the 28% who still like George Bush seriously think that Obama has the same views as Wright did in a few of his sermons? Come on people. ]

10. Wright/patriotism [Ok, I am going to chuck the tv out the window.]

11. Bosnia/Clinton’s honesty [had to be one question about this too. Hillary didn't really do very well with it, IMHO.]

12. Clinton’s honesty [Again, belaboring the issue for no real reason. Still have not talked about one single real live important issue.]

13. Flag pin/patriotism [ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? If people think you have to wear a flag pin to be patriotic....is this the Soviet Union?]

14. Ayers/patriotism [Now discussing a guy from the from the 1960s who did some bad things back then and happens to live in Chicago now. What is the @!%%^ relevance!?!?

Oh, finally onto a real issue–Iraq. Thank goodness. I have not seen a worse debate. Ever. And I’ve seen a lot of debates. I expect a question or two on some of these media-created non-issues, fine. But to spend literally 45 minutes–half the debate–on this crap is ludicrous. ABC should be ashamed of itself. Get CNN back in here to do these debates. Actually, 21 debates are plenty. No more. Please. Spare us.

From The Page (Time Magazine):

1. There has been no collapse of Obama’s Pennsylvania poll numbers.

2. There has been no collapse of Obama’s national poll numbers.

3. There has been no rush of superdelegates to Clinton (quite the contrary).

4. There have been no prominent Obama supporters who have uttered discouraging, off-message words about what he said.

5. There has been no panicked leaking or blaming/worried blind quotes out of the Obama campaign.

6. There has been no diminution of the fighting spirit of the Obama campaign.

7. There have been no moments in which it appeared that the controversy has gotten inside Obama’s head or consistently rattled him on the campaign trail.

8. There have been no uncommitted Democratic leaders who have uttered critical words about what he said.

9. There has been no flood of prominent liberal columnists writing tough words about Obama.

10. There have been very few person-on-the-street-based news stories in which the overwhelming sentiment is anti-Obama.

11. There has been no overwhelming attack on Obama from the right-wing media machine — or, at least, not enough to force more Old Media coverage (a la the Swiftboaters in 2004).

12. There has been no clear audio (or video) from the closed San Francisco fundraiser.

13. There has not been enough Clinton money to fund an overwhelming advertising campaign about the flap.

14. There has been no clarity from the Clinton campaign about whether it is making an argument about Obama’s out-of-touchness, about his electability, or about both.

15. There has been no firestorm on late-night comedy shows or among people around the water cooler.

16. There have not been sufficient new developments to keep it as the lead story on every television newscast (or even to keep it IN every newscast).

Both Obama and Clinton spoke yesterday at an event where, when Clinton brought up Obama’s “bitter” comments, she got booed and many of the audience groaned. And this was talking to these blue-collar factory workers. I think she has WAY overplayed her hand on this one and Obama has done a great job of explaining the intention of his remarks and hitting right back at her.When McCain and Clinton both attack him using pretty much the same talking points, what does that tell you? Both establishment political types. We need a fresh start….come on my native Pennsylvanians and vote Obama!

Meanwhile, some new polling has come out since the remarks last Friday, basically showing no real losses for Obama and even some gains in Indiana and NC. Unless he starts getting polls showing him leading by 5 or more points in PA, I still think she wins the state. But it ain’t gonna make a lot of difference because she isn’t going to win by what she needs to. She wins by less than 10% and she won;t gain much more than 10-20 delegates I suspect (from what I’ve read).

Don’t forget there is ANOTHER DEBATE coming up on Wednesday on ABC at 8:00pm EST. Maybe Obama will knock her out or she’ll make a big mistake. More than likely it won’t affect much. But it’ll still be interesting. Do we get Nice Hillary or Evil Hillary? Stay tuned….

Pennsylvania

LA Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Clinton 46
Obama 41
Indiana

LA Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Obama 40
Clinton 35
North Carolina

LA Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Obama 47
Clinton 34

Insider Advantage 4/14. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Obama 51
Clinton 36

Also, check out the Gallup Daily Tracker, Obama has now opened up an 11 point lead and has not been below Clinton for over 3 weeks.

So today, it was reported and then “condemned” by the McCain and Clinton camps that Obama somehow was an elitist and didn’t understand what working-class people have been going through, saying he was somehow “out-of-touch” with citizens. Here’s his quote, which, perhaps the first time you hear it, maybe sounds bad, especially if you don’t get the full context (as may be normal with media these days):

But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

That’s what he said at an event on Sunday. The truth is, and everyone should know it, that alot of people HAVE been voting against their own economic interests for quite some time now. (See book called “What’s the Matter with Kansas”-excellent read!) And so what do they turn to next–gun rights, gays, religious beliefs, immigrants, etc….it’s so true. This was all over the news shows tonight (made me real frustrated), but Obama came out and hit right back tonight–this just rocks:

Don’t tell me he won’t fight back. Obama don’t take none of that, fool. Awesome retort!

Recent polls continue to show Obama closing the gap, but I still believe they are a little off. I think Clinton is maintaining a lead between 7-10 points right now. Of course, the Clinton campaign now wants you to think that Obama SHOULD WIN the state (failing to remember that they were ahead by 20 points three weeks ago):

“If Senator Obama is not able to win Pennsylvania with all the resources he has thrown at the state… it will again demonstrate that he has serious problems winning the large states and closing the deal with voters,” said Clinton’s spokesman Howard Wolfson. “We all know that the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue runs through Pennsylvania. If Sen. Obama, outspending us three to one in the state, is unable to win Pennsylvania it would be another sign that his campaign is not the best to face Sen. McCain in the fall….He has been willing even to put his bowling skills on display in an effort to do well here.“

Seriously folks, no real political analyst thinks Obama is going to win Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign continues to move the goalposts. I mean, the real question is, if Hillary doesn’t win by double digits in a state that favors her in SO many ways, what’s the problem with HER campaign and candidacy??? Isn’t that the real question?

Should Obama win, it would be a miracle and a deathknell for Hillary. Hey, I’m hoping but the reality is its probably unlikely and if he can get within 5-6 points, that would be a real victory in that state.