Apr 21 2008
Feverish Race to the Finish in PA
It has finally arrived! The day of the Pennsylvania Primary is here after six long weeks of campaigning, several awkward statements, sniper stories, buses and trains all over PA and a really bad debate. Now the voters will decide. I’m trying to use my home-state powers (I was born in PA if you didn’t know) to get those Pennsylvanians to end this race and give Obama a shocking victory.
From my expert analysis of the recent polling data, here’s my prediction, on record:
1. Clinton 53.5% Obama 46.5%. 7 point win for her, but not overwhelming. She won’t be getting the double digit 12+ or actually 20+ victory margin she needs to make up a whole lot of delegates. The story will be “Clinton Wins, So What?” and that she gains maybe 10-20 delegate on him. So he still leads by 120. Hmmm.
2 . Rosy hopeful scenario. The polls could be wrong on this one. If PPP nails it like they did nail Wisconsin when everyone else thought it would be closer, then Obama may win. If younger voters turn out in higher numbers then normal and African-Americans do as well, this may be a shocker. Chances of this are 35%. If it happens, Obama wins 51%-49%.
Stay tuned!
4 Responses to “Feverish Race to the Finish in PA”
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I will say…Clinton by 9—-not the double digits she needed to appear strong but close enough that she can continue to lie to herself and torture the populace for a few more weeks. Oh joy.
I am optimistic that Obama may keep it under a 5-point spread, which I think would be significant for him. Maybe even steal a win although as a Lions fan I (should) have learned that it’s best to keep one’s expectations low (very low, like the number of your draft pick…).
I just keep hearing in my head CJ from the West Wing saying “If you can’t BEAT expectations, you have to LOWER them.” Which is of course what Clinton has been working on for the last 6 weeks.
Bottom line, no one has any idea…anything could happen! Which is why politics is like crack for nerds such as Gus. OK, and me.
HRC by 9.39% . . . what do I win?!
Good call Wendy. I guess Obama slightly underperformed my expectations, but managed to keep it under 10, which I was happy to see when I got up this morning. I’m sure there will be a couple days of deconstructing teh PA primary vote and then things (ie: the news and pundits) will moce on to focus on NC and Indiana. I’ll say right now Obama wins both. And with those two victories, forces Hillary out. She’ll have no argument left. Once he gets over half of the pledged delegates, he can claim a legitimate victory and the media will start asking how Hillary can overturn the will of the people. At least its only two weeks out, not 6. And maybe Oregon will actually seal the whole deal–you guys get to vote!
So I win nothing? Not a delegate, not a hanging chad, not a half-Obama-eaten waffle being sold on eBay? (What is wrong with people, anyway?)
I think he’ll win both too. Looking forward to feeling important and having visitors to our state! Robocalls, not so much.