Apr 21 2008
Feverish Race to the Finish in PA
It has finally arrived! The day of the Pennsylvania Primary is here after six long weeks of campaigning, several awkward statements, sniper stories, buses and trains all over PA and a really bad debate. Now the voters will decide. I’m trying to use my home-state powers (I was born in PA if you didn’t know) to get those Pennsylvanians to end this race and give Obama a shocking victory.
From my expert analysis of the recent polling data, here’s my prediction, on record:
1. Clinton 53.5% Obama 46.5%. 7 point win for her, but not overwhelming. She won’t be getting the double digit 12+ or actually 20+ victory margin she needs to make up a whole lot of delegates. The story will be “Clinton Wins, So What?” and that she gains maybe 10-20 delegate on him. So he still leads by 120. Hmmm.
2 . Rosy hopeful scenario. The polls could be wrong on this one. If PPP nails it like they did nail Wisconsin when everyone else thought it would be closer, then Obama may win. If younger voters turn out in higher numbers then normal and African-Americans do as well, this may be a shocker. Chances of this are 35%. If it happens, Obama wins 51%-49%.
Stay tuned!
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